ICAR News Network
Reading Putin's Mind: What the New Appointment Means
Ekaterina Romanova, ICAR PhD Student
Posted: 09/21/07
Nomination of Viktor Zubkov, a little-known to the public head of the Federal Financial Monitoring Service as Russian new prime minister came as a bigger surprise than resignation of Michael Fradkov last week. Putin’s decisions, particularly on appointments, have rarely been predicted correctly. Putin’s move caused surprise and heated discussions everywhere, but in Russia itself. The U.S. analysts on Russia should not jump to a conclusion or predict the fate of Russia’ political development based on any isolated incident of resignation or political speech. Without understanding of Russian political history, public attitude to politics and the context of the current political environment all these prognoses are doomed to fail. “Wait and see” is the best strategy now in predicting the outcome of the elections in Russia. And yet, the path of political development towards more strongly asserting national interests and regaining Russia’s regional power and influence is unlikely to change with either parliamentary election in December or presidential election in March. And Putin strategically tries to secure that.
From the day of his appointment in 2004, Fradkov was viewed as a technical figure without any political ambition or personal charisma. It was exactly the type of person Putin wanted to fill the prime minister’s position with. In the current top political establishment in Russia, there are very few people with obvious leadership skills, political aspiration or charisma. No one is able to develop into an independent and outstanding political figure. No one outspokenly opposes Putin’s regime or the course of political development. No one is even approximately close to Putin’s popularity rate.
Russia’s political tradition suggests only one leader: autocratic czar, the general secretary of the communist party or the president. The latter variant implies distribution of power. And yet, clever appointments to the leading political positions and the entire government turns into a puppet-show. The president remains a strong “absolute ruler.” Attempts to change such a political order have failed and are likely to fail in the foreseeable future. People are used to a strong leader. An old Russian saying, “Barin, a Russian landowner, will come, barin will decide,” precisely describes the mentality and the mood of the country. People will wait for the leader to make a decision, rather than take an action themselves.
This difference in attitude to politics and government between Russia and the West is the cause of many troubles. Putin’s rhetoric and decision cause much bewilderment in the West. Russians accept any political decision as a given. People infinitely trust the leader, however they can be ruthlessly cruel to him after his resignation (and history repetitively proves that). If keeping these features of Russian character in mind, then Putin’s political moves seem more logical than ever.
Michael Fradkov’s resignation was predicated from the beginning of his term. It was rather the timing and the name of new appointee that surprised analysts, than Fradkov’s resignation. Many expected Sergei Ivanov, the first deputy prime minister, to get the nomination. But Putin acted like a true sportsman, when in a marathon several team members keep the leadership to the end and almost at the finish line allow the expected winner to cross the line first. It is a team effort to establish the leader and preserve his leadership.
There are several questions in this new Putin’s strategy that remain unanswered:
First, will Zubkov be able to keep the paste in the remaining distance until the finish line of the presidential election? Zubkov has time to demonstrate his abilities to the public and shape his PR campaign. The effects of his appointment and reaction to it in Russia demonstrate that Putin made a wise choice. Viktor Zubkov is not young. But it is more of advantage rather than a disadvantage in the current Russian political world. Russians cautiously treat young political leaders. The constellation of the so-called “young democrats,” Irina Hakamada, Anatolii Chubais, and Boris Nemtsov, that gleamed through political sky created too much suspicion and antagonism in people. After their unsuccessful presence in the government, it will take some time to see young triumphant politicians in Russia again.
Zubkov’s experience and outstanding career growth during the Soviet Union and in the post-Soviet Russia makes him rather popular in Russia and provides support from people of different age groups, social classes and economic status. His background gives him the head start in the rise to the political Olympus.
The second question is about the two fancied candidates to the presidential chair, Sergei Ivanov and Dmitrii Medvedev. It remains unclear how much of the teamwork Zubkov’s nomination was. If they were a part of the plan, than it is a sign of an incredibly strong and united ‘Putin’s team,’ where members are able to sacrifice their own personal political aspiration for the sake of the team success. If they were not, and the news became as much of a surprise for the them as for the rest of the country, then there is a split, which is fraught with potential political distress and can lead to more surprises in the political life in Russia.
In the coming month prior to presidential elections, one cannot exclude additional unexpected scenarios. Vladimir Putin has already sprung many surprises and most likely has many more in store.
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