PSCE Conference 
Abstracts: Seminar 1, Session 4
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SUCCESSION DYNAMICS AND REVOLUTION IN CENTRAL ASIA
Mark N. Katz, George Mason University
Will There Be Revolution in Central Asia?
Will there be revolution in any or all of the five countries of Central Asia? Given the region's enormous petroleum resources and strategic location, the impact of successful revolution in this part of the world would be enormous. Forecasting whether a government will be overthrown by revolutionaries, though, is notoriously difficult. It usually comes as a surprise when governments are overthrown. Yet other governments which are widely seen to be weak somehow manage to survive. One way to consider the question of whether there will be revolution in Central Asia is through applying different theories of revolution to the various countries of that region. There are, of course, many different theories of revolution. Each tends to identify one or two variables as the key factor(s) in determining whether revolution will succeed in any given country. It is not my purpose here to engage in the ongoing debate among the proponents of these different theories as to which of them should take precedence. What I seek to do instead is to assess to what extent the factors determining whether revolution occurs as identified by different theoretical approaches are or not present in each of the five Central Asian republics.
Gregory Gleason, University of New Mexico
Succession Dynamics in Central Asia
More than a decade after the passing of communism, the countries of Central Asia continue to be ruled by the leaders of the pre-independence communist organizations. Despite the significant headway that the countries have made in many areas of economic and political reform, none of the countries has solved the key issue of authoritarian rule-the establishment of an orderly and legitimate procedure for the transfer of power. The failure of the governments to solve the succession problem presents the single most serious threat to stability in Central Asia today. Political succession is inevitable. The longer the adoption of an orderly procedure for political succession is postponed, the more likely the succession will involve open conflict. As the regionally and ethnically based clans have established themselves within the hierarchies of government, it is quite likely that the succession, when it occurs, will become winner-take-all competition among regional groups and other contenders for power.
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