PSCE Conference 
Abstracts: Seminar 2, Session 1
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Will There Be Revolution in Central Asia?
Will revolution, either of the democratic or the Islamic fundamentalist variety, spread throughout Central Asia? Such a question cannot be answered definitively. I will address this question by examining what is going on in Central Asia in light of different theories of revolution, including ones focusing on relative deprivation, regime type, state breakdown, and external factors. This study hopes to show that several theoretical approaches suggest that the ingredients for revolution in Central Asia are either there now or will be in the not too distant future.
Douglas Tookey
Environmental Security in Central Asia: A Chance for Regional Cooperation
The Governments of Central Asia, civil society and international organizations are paying increasing attention to environmental security issues. They understand that these issues cannot be ignored if a stable and secure future is to be guaranteed for Central Asia . They also understand that if environmental security challenges are not attended to, they can lead to, or contribute to, conflict on both the intra and inter state levels. The causes of these conflicts are many, including environmental woes inherited from the days of the Former Soviet Union, and current times when environmental protection may not always be a priority. Recent attention to these issues shows that by working together to prevent conflicts with roots in environmental problems, cooperation among the countries of Central Asia can expand.
Dr. Gawdat Bahgat
Prospects for Cooperation in the Caspian Sea
The Caspian Sea region is important to world energy markets because it holds large reserves of undeveloped oil and natural gas. In order to fully utilize these resources several challenges need to be addressed. These include an accurate assessment of the region's hydrocarbon resources; lack of consensus on the legal status, ethnic divisions, and competing transportation routes. This paper analyzes the sources of conflict, structure of conflict, and the different institutions to mitigate these conflicts.
Reuel R. Hanks
Dynamics of Islam, Identity, and Institutional Rule in Uzbekistan : Constructing a Paradigm for Conflict Resolution
The era of independence in Uzbekistan has witnessed a pattern of escalating conflict between the authoritarian regime of Islam Karimov and various manifestations of “unofficial” Islam. The latter have sought, to differing degrees, a place in the country's political arena, some via non-violent means, others eventually through the instruments of terrorism and insurgency. The focus here is to elucidate and analyze the following components that underlie this conflict. First, I will describe the major adversarial players and their history in Uzbekistan. Second, I will attempt to outline and analyze the causes underlying the conflict between the regime of Islam Karimov and the “Islamists,” and third, I will suggest some possible prescriptive strategies for resolution of this conflict, and the role U.S. policy might play in achieving such a solution.
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