PSCE Conference 
Event: Policy Forum
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The State Department, May 5, 1:30 -3:30
Douglas Tookey, OSC
Mark N. Katz, George Mason University
The session addresses the challenges for the security in Central Asia.
One of them- the failure of the governments to solve the succession problem-
presents the single most serious threat to stability in Central Asia today.
Despite the significant headway that the countries have made in many areas
of economic and political reform, none of the countries has solved the key
issue of authoritarian rule-the establishment of an orderly and legitimate
procedure for the transfer of power. The longer the adoption of an orderly
procedure for political succession is postponed, the more likely the
succession will involve open conflict.
Given the region's enormous petroleum resources and strategic location, the
impact of successful revolution in this part of the world would be enormous.
It is important to assess to what extent the factors determining whether
revolution occurs as identified by different theoretical approaches are or
not present in each of the five Central Asian republics.
Environmental security issues also present formidable challenges
in Central Asia , and could potentially lead to conflict in the years ahead.
The presentation will include a review of current environmental security
risks in the Ferghana Valley , an examination of how they have been assessed
by various parties, a discussion of how these environmental threats might
lead to conflict, an evaluation of prospects for regional cooperation in
this area, and recommendations to best address these issues
Quick Links
ICAR Main Site
Title VIII Program of the State Department
Seminar 1
Seminar 2