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Posted April 21, 2004
By Pamela Harris

Hurting Stalemate in the Middle East

(Dialogue Webpage for Conflicts Worldwide (DWCW) Newsletter - April 2004 Focus of the Month Piece)

By Dennis J. D. Sandole
ICAR Professor and Fulbright Visiting Professor of International Studies,
Diplomatic Academy of Vienna

Sir, Philip Stephens' Financial Times article on the occasion of the Israeli assassination of Sheikh Ahmed Yassin ("The targetted killing of the Middle East peace process", March 26) brings to mind the situation in game theory known as the "Prisoners' Dilemma". In the PD, each of two conflicting parties continues to pursue its narrowly defined interests in "win-lose" terms, with both winding up at the end of the day less well off than they were before.

The "dilemma" is captured eloquently by the stubborn persistence of Realpolitik-driven parties to continue pursuing "rationality" and security at the expense of "the Other", even though the results of such behavior are catastrophically counterproductive outcomes in the presence of more productive, "win-win" options.

While the PD illustrates the "bite and counter-bite" nature of action-reaction escalation, it does not capture the structural and historical settings within which the moves and countermoves are being played out to the detriment of all.

For Israelis and Jews worldwide, these include the experience and historical memories of discrimination, pogroms and, immediately prior to the founding of the Jewish state, the identity-shaping Holocaust. For Palestinians, and Arabs and Muslims worldwide, the Jewish state was created -- and is still being established -- at the total expense of the indigenous population, resulting in their oppression, marginalization, criminalization, and military occupation.

Each Palestinian suicide bombing rekindles Jewish fears of extinction, while each Israeli military assault on an already occupied population, with US-supplied jet fighters and helicopter gunships, furthers the sense of Palestinian emasculation, humiliation, frustration, and rage.

The way to undermine the "psycho-logic" of the Prisoners' Dilemma is not to continue to "fight fire with fire", thereby making the fire worse, but to deal effectively with the underlying, deep-rooted historical and structural factors that continue to drive both Palestinian and Israeli actions and reactions.

Apparently, Israelis and Palestinians cannot achieve this on their own. Hence, they desperately need help. This is precisely where the "Quartet" -- the European Union, United Nations, United States, and Russian Federation -- can play an effective mediative role. More importantly, "win-win" rationality would demand that they should, if they really want to "win" against global terrorism and prevent the PD from being transformed into the "Game of Chicken", with disastrous implications for all concerned.