September 11, Crisis Resolution

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Afghan’s Factor in Tajikistan: The Security Hazards in Region

By Abdusabur Abdusamadov
Junior research associate,
Institute of Philosophy and Law, Academy of Sciences, Tajikistan

"When there is a fire in the house it may singe the neighbors"
(proverb)

The Central Asian region has had a long and tumultuous history. For more than 3,000 years this region has been a crossroads for major ethnic migrations and a meeting place of the ancient world’s great civilizations. This region has also been an area of great power rivalries. During the last century, the region was the scene of intense Russo-British competition known as a great game. Historically, all Central Asian states have been used as a staging area during conflicts. Contemporary Central Asian societies are bracing for a new period of instability and experiencing new crisis, which are deeper in some aspects than those of previous systems. The breakdown of that system led to a complexity of difficulties related to the transformation of totalitarian regimes into democratic societies.

Today the world is justly worried. Afghanistan has become the largest source of drugs and a center of international terrorism. The Taliban, the radical Islamist group that rules much of Afghanistan, controls more than 90 percent of Afghanistan’s poppy fields. They use poppy-derived income to arm, train, and support fundamentalist groups, including the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). By some accounts, Osama bin Laden is personally investing in a new liquid heroin called "Tears of Allah".

Tajik society, on the front line of the anti-trafficking struggle, is already suffering severely from the narcotics scourge. Drug addicts in state institutions increased fourfold, between 1996 and 2000, with 74 percent of these reportedly using heroin. According to some data, dozens of warehouses and laboratories producing high-quality heroin meant for transportation abroad, are located along the Afghan-Tajik border. Therefore, Tajikistan is eager to weaken radical groups and seeks to reinvigorate its anti-trafficking policy, as well as seeking greater international assistance.

The necessity of creating a regional security system in Central Asia has been discussed for a very long time, even before the first successes of the Taliban movement and its eventual take-over of power in Afghanistan. Historically, the smuggling of drugs and arms has been the main source of destabilization for the entire Central Asian region; today the terrorist threat has become the impetus for increased instability.

Afghanistan shares its borders with the tree Central Asian States of Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Approximately 4 million Tajiks, 1.7 million Uzbeks and half a million Turkmens live in Afghanistan. Among them, Tajikistan has long been regarded both by Russia and the West as the bulwark between Afghanistan and the rest of Central Asia. The US strike against Afghanistan-based terrorism has generated great tension, particularly in Tajikistan. Afghanistan has become over the past nine years the world’s leading producer of poppy paste, heroin’s base product. The 1300 km border between Tajikistan and Afghanistan offers smugglers the cheapest and most straightforward route into the former Soviet Union and to Europe. Many people in Tajikistan were worried that any fighting in neighboring Afghanistan could upset the delicate political balance in Tajikistan, which is still recovering from a civil war. The Tajik peace agreement is still young and many aspects of the transition from crisis to normalcy need ongoing international support. All Central Asian states also were worried about a possible flood of refugees from Afghanistan because some members of the Taliban may try to enter Central Asia along with the flood of refugees. They fear the flow of people would increase the flow of drugs, infectious diseases, and extremists into the region.

The ongoing US attack against the Taliban will cause a refugee crisis that would destabilize Tajikistan and other neighboring states. Afghan refugees have gathered on the Panj River at the Tajik border for years. Tajikistan has an extremely limited capacity to cope with refugees and could not afford to let Afghan refugees into the country, because of the risk that there would be terrorists among them. In addition, the country is still recovering from a five-year civil war, and is not in position to provide shelter and fair living conditions to refugees. In addition the country is suffering from a drought and cannot take on the responsibility of feeding more people. If Tajikistan refuses to admit these people, it may force the west to increase aid. Refugees are becoming a source of mounting concern for Tajikistan.

The US attack against terrorism in Afghanistan may radically reshape the geopolitical balance in Central Asia and could cause the region to unravel. In 1998 the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), which has received training and support from the Taliban and bin Laden, threatened to blow up a reservoir in Tajikistan. In the light of the US-led anti-terrorist campaign and given its economic importance, other reservoirs now are also a potential national security hazard in the region and could be targeted. The Lake Sarez reservoir in Tajikistan has been the object of the past terrorist threats. On several occasions during the Tajikistan’s 1992-97 civil war, anti-government military commanders in the United Tajik Opposition (UTO) threatened to blow up the Usai dam, which hold Lake Sarez’s waters. A catastrophe involving the collapse of the Usai dam could endanger up to 5 million people in Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

Security concerns are connected with Central Asian states’ participation in the US led, anti-terrorism campaign, and signing the signing of the US-Uzbek joint statement on October 12. Taliban leaders have indicated they will try to retaliate against Central Asian states that assist in the US war effort. Also, the attack in Afghanistan may destabilize the Central Asian region and the funding base for producing new army commanders in the countryside.

Another danger may be Russia's reaction to the US presence in Central Asia. For more than a century before the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, Central Asia was in Russia’s sphere of influence and today Russian public opinion is wary of the US presence in Central Asia. Such a level of opposition raises the possibility of future diplomatic confrontation between Russia and the United States over Central Asia.