Investment/Macroeconomics in International Commerce
ITRN 503.002
Fall 2001
02342
S 9:30 am – 12:15 pm
Room: Arlington
269
Mr. Volpe
703-993-8233
(university telephone)
703-993-8215
(university fax)
jvolpe@gmu.edu
(university e-mail)
foxlobby@aol.com
(private e-mail)
Mordechai E.
Kreinin, International Economics: A
Policy Approach, Eighth Edition, The Dryden Press, Harcourt Brace College
Publishers, 1998.
Additional
readings are highly recommended, and can be found under topic headings listed
below. These readings are of varying
degrees of difficulty, and are included to assist in understanding of the
textbook material or, in some cases, to provide information not included in the
textbook.
You should also consult other sources of information
such as: The Encyclopedia of Economics;
the International Encyclopedia of the
Social Sciences; The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics; the OECD Main Economic Indicators; the World Bank World Development Report; the
American Economic Review and the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity;
and The Economist and the IMF Survey (for current general
information).
Newspapers that are good sources of information include The Christian
Science Monitor, The New York Times and The
Wall Street Journal; other noteworthy sources are newsletters issued by
Federal Reserve district banks and by major commercial banks. Valuable magazines and reports on
international economic policy include: Business
Week; the Congressional Quarterly
Weekly Report; and the Far East Economic Review. You might also wish to review other
international economics textbooks, such as Peter H. Lindert and Thomas A.
Pugel, International Economics (11th
edition may now be available), Richard D. Irwin; or Dennis R. Appleyard and Alfred J. Field,
Jr., International Economics, Third
Edition, Chicago, Illinois: Irwin/ McGraw-Hill, 1998. You should also consult a
basic economics textbook such as N. Gregory Mankiw, Principles of Economics, The Dryden Press, Harcourt Brace College
Publishers, 1998.
Finally, look for publications (monographs) from the
Institute for International Economics (check their web page as well) for timely
analyses of current international issues.
Look, too, for publications and website information from other think
tanks, such as, among others:
·
The Brookings Institution http://www.brookings.org/
·
The Cato Institute http://www.cato.org/pubs/pubs.html
·
The Heritage Foundation http://www.heritage.org/
·
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research http://www.aei.org/
There will be two examinations, averaged to determine
the final grade. The first examination
will be given roughly halfway through the course of the semester, and will
include all textbook chapters, lectures, classroom discussion, videos, and
other information discussed to that point.
The second examination, which will be scheduled during final examination
week, will include all chapters, lectures, classroom discussion, videos, and
other information covered after the midterm.
Class attendance and participation will also count in determining the
final grade, particularly in borderline grading situations.
We will explore
the fundamentals of international monetary economics, macroeconomic theory and
policy, and issues in world monetary arrangements. This means we will be covering:
·
The foreign
exchange market.
·
What
determines exchange rates?
·
The threat
of unstable exchange rates.
·
Income and
foreign exchange.
·
Internal
and external balances with fixed exchange rates.
·
Floating
exchange rates and internal balance.
·
The world
monetary climate.
·
The Mexican
and Asian financial crises.
·
Currency
Boards.
·
Dollarization.
·
The IMF and
the World Bank: Pro and Con.
General topic
headings are shown below, along with required and suggested reading
assignments. We will follow the text
through these topics chapter by chapter, which means assignments for the
following class will depend upon where we are in the text. You will be directed at the end of each
class as to your reading assignment for the following class. On topics not covered in the textbook, consult
the readings under each section.
Christopher L. Bach, U.S.
International Transactions, Fourth Quarter and Year 1999, U.S. Department
of Commerce, Survey of Current Business, April 2000. http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/di/bopq/maintext.htm
Topic 2: Market-Determined Exchange
Rates
Eleftherios N.
Botsas, The ABCs of the Foreign Exchange
Market.
http://www.sba.oakland.edu/ecnlettr/iel39tx2.htm
Charles W.
Calomiris, The IMF’s Imprudent Role as
Lender of Last Resort, Cato Journal, Volume 17, Number 3, Winter
1998.
http://www.cato.org/pubs/journal/cj17n3-11.html
George Melloan, New ‘Architecture’ for Global Finance?
Please Specify, The Wall Street Journal, Tuesday, September 22,
1998. (handout).
Erik R.
Peterson, Surrendering to Markets, The
Washington Quarterly, Volume 18, Number 4, Autumn 1995, pp. 103-115.
Leland B.
Yeager, How to Avoid International
Financial Crises, Cato Journal, Volume 17, Number 3, Winter 1998.
http://www.cato.org/pubs/journal/cj17n3-4.html
Special Euro Issue, World Trade, January 1999, pp.
34-91.
Lester C.
Thurow, Get Ready, U.S. Investors; You’ll
Love the Euro, USA Today.
(handout).
Charles W.
Calomiris, The IMF’s Imprudent Role as
Lender of Last Resort, Cato Journal, Volume 17, Number 3, Winter
1998.
http://www.cato.org/pubs/journal/cj17n3-11.html
Kevin Dowd, Monetary Policy in the 21st
Century: An Impossible Task? Cato Journal, Volume 17, Number 3,
Winter 1998.
http://www.cato.org/pubs/journal/cj17n3-2.html
Francisco
Gil-Diaz, The Origin of Mexico’s 1994
Financial Crisis, Cato Journal, Volume 17, Number 3, Winter 1998.
Alan Greenspan, The Globalization of Finance, Cato
Journal, Volume 17, Number 3, Winter 1998.
http://www.cato.org/pubs/journal/cj17n3-1.html
Group Of
Seven Statement on Economic, Financial Issues. (handout).
Steve H. Hanke, Critics Err – Mexico Still Needs a Currency
Board. (handout).
David D. Hale, Is It a Yen or a Dollar Crisis in the
Currency Market? The Washington Quarterly, Volume 18, Number 4,
Autumn 1995, pp. 145-171.
A. James Meigs, Lessons for Asia from Mexico, Cato
Journal, Volume 17, Number 3, Winter 1998.
Anna J.
Schwartz, International Financial Crises:
Myths and Realities, Cato Journal, Volume 17, Number 3, Winter 1998.
Walter B.
Wriston, Dumb Networks and Smart Capital,
Cato Journal, Volume 17, Number 3, Winter 1998.
http://www.cato.org/pubs/journal/cj17n3-12.html
ISSUES IN DEPTH:
http://207.238.152.36/CATALOG/WP/2000/00-4.htm
Marcus W.
Brauchli, Foreign Capital Holds Key in
Southeast Asia. (handout).
Martin
Feldstein, All is Not Lost for the Won. (handout).
Steve H. Hanke, How to Establish Monetary Stability in Asia,
Cato Journal, Volume 17, Number 3, Winter 1998.
http://www.cato.org/pubs/journal/cj17n3-9.html
Holman W.
Jenkins, Jr., Let the Banks Bail Out
Their Indonesian Clients, The Wall Street Journal, March 11,
1998. (handout).
Holman W.
Jenkins, Jr., Why the view of Asia’s
Bonfire Is So Pretty, The Wall Street Journal, August 26, 1998. (handout).
Darren McDermott
and Karene Witcher, Bartering Gains
Currency in Hard-Hit Southeast Asia, The Wall Street Journal. (handout).
Allan H.
Meltzer, Asian Problems and the IMF, Cato
Journal, Volume 17, Number 3, Winter 1998.
http://www.cato.org/pubs/journal/cj17n3-10.html
Mark Mobius, Asia Needs a Single Currency, The
Wall Street Journal, February 19, 1998.
(handout).
Marcus Noland, How the Sick Man Avoided Pneumonia: The
Philippines in the Asian Financial; Crisis, Institute for International
Economics, Working Paper 00-5, May 2000.
Marcus Noland,
Sherman Robinson and Zhi Wang, The
Continuing Asian Financial Crisis: Global Adjustment and Trade, Institute
for International Economics, Working Paper 99-4, March 1999.
http://207.238.152.36/CATALOG/WP/1999/99-4.htm
Mary Anastasia
O’Grady, Note to Brazil: Remember the
Baht and Defend the Real, The Wall Street Journal, October 31, 1997.
(handout)
Nouriel Roubini,
What Caused Asia’s Economic and Currency
Crisis and Its Global Contagion?
http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~nroubini/asia/AsiaHomepage.html
Robert E. Rubin,
Address on the Asian Financial Situation
to Georgetown University, January 21, 1998.
Steve H. Hanke, Critics Err – Mexico Still Needs a Currency
Board. (handout).
Steve H. Hanke, How to Establish Monetary Stability in Asia,
Cato Journal, Volume 17, Number 3, Winter 1998.
http://www.cato.org/pubs/journal/cj17n3-9.html
Kurt Schuler, A Currency board Beats IMF Rx, The
Wall Street Journal, February 18, 1998.
(handout).
Prepared
Testimony of Wayne Angell, Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee,
Hearing on Official Dollarization in
Emerging Market Countries, April 22, 1999.
http://www.senate.gov/~banking/99_04hrg/042299/angell.htm
Prepared
Testimony of C. Fred Bergsten, Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs
Committee, Hearing on Official
Dollarization in Emerging Market Countries, April 22, 1999.
http://www.senate.gov/~banking/99_04hrg/042299/bergsten.htm
Prepared
Testimony of Guillermo A. Calvo, Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs
Committee, Hearing on Official
Dollarization in Emerging Market Countries, April 22, 1999.
http://www.senate.gov/~banking/99_04hrg/042299/calvo.htm
Joint Economic
Committee, Basics of Dollarization,
January 2000.
http://www.senate.gov/~jec/basics.htm
Senate Banking
Committee, Citizen’s Guide to
Dollarization, Committee Documents Online, 106th Congress.
Prepared
Testimony of Judy Shelton, Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee,
Hearing on Official Dollarization in
Emerging Market Countries, April 22, 1999.
http://www.senate.gov/~banking/99_04hrg/042299/shelton.htm
Lawrence
Summers, Dollarization, in Testimony
before the Senate Banking Committee Subcommittee on Economic Policy and
Subcommittee on International Trade and Finance, April 22, 1999.
http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/pr3098.htm
Soren Ambrose, The IMF Has Gotten Too Big for Its Britches. (handout).
Charles W.
Calomiris, The IMF’s Imprudent Role as
Lender of Last Resort, Cato Journal, Volume 17, Number 3, Winter
1998.
http://www.cato.org/pubs/journal/cj17n3-11.html
Horst Kohler, The IMF in a Changing World, Speech at
the National Press Club, August 7, 2000.
http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2000/080700.htm
George Melloan, New ‘Architecture’ for Global Finance?
Please Specify, The Wall Street Journal, Tuesday, September 22,
1998. (handout).
David
Rockefeller, Why We Need the IMF. (handout).
Andrew Steer and
Jocelyn Mason, The Role of Multilateral
Finance and the Environment: A View from the World Bank.
http://www.law.indiana.edu/glsj/vol3/no1/steer.html
Lawrence H.
Summers, The Role of Multilateral
Institutions in Preserving International Financial Stability, Bretton Woods
Committee Annual Meeting, February 13, 1998.
(handout).
Lawrence
Summers, Why America Needs the IMF. (handout).
U.S. Department
of the Treasury, The International Monetary
Fund, 2/10/98. (handout).
Ian Vasquez, At the World Bank, Money is No Object. (handout).
The Wall
Street Journal, The IMF Crisis, editorial. (handout).
The Wall
Street Journal, IMFonomics. (handout).
The Wall
Street Journal, What’s an IMF For? (handout).
Andrew Steer and
Jocelyn Mason, The Role of Multilateral
Finance and the Environment: A View from the World Bank.
http://www.law.indiana.edu/glsj/vol3/no1/steer.html
Michael M.
Phillips, IMF and Critics Debate
Accounting Principles, The Wall Street Journal, September 28,
1998. (handout).
Ian Vasquez, At the World Bank, Money Is No Object, The
Wall Street Journal. (handout).
Anne Swardson
and Clay Chandler, G-7 Calls for IMF
Bailout Mechanism, The Washington Post. (handout).
The Wall
Street Journal, The IMF Crisis. (handout).
The Wall
Street Journal, What’s an IMF For? (handout).
David Sacks and
Peter Thiel, The IMF’s Big Wealth
Transfer, The Wall Street Journal, March 13, 1998. (handout).