Right-Sizing Navy Fire & Emergency Services

Fall 2012

Below is a more detailed outline of the project carried out. Please see our final report in the Deliverables section for a complete description.

Project Details


Navy Fire & Emergency Services (F&ES) protects 70+ installations worldwide via four functions: Fire Protection, Fire Prevention, EMS Transport, and Aircraft Rescue & Fire Fighting. However, in a fiscally constrained era, the Navy is required to more carefully budget and trim their resources and the F&ES are not exempt. In order to make decisions regarding a reduction in assets and services, the Navy needs to be able to quantify the risk of loss of infrastructure, property, and lives.


The Navy has hired Mr. Fred Woodaman, Principal Analyst at Innovative Decisions Inc, to inform their decision process regarding reducing F&ES assets. He has created a cost model called Fire and Emergency Service Program and Objectives Memorandum (FESPOM). What he needs is a model that can calculate the expected losses given an installation and a set of F&ES assets. With such a model, he hopes to be able to compare the results of reducing F&ES capacity in one installation versus another.


In the Fall 2011 semester, a team of students from George Mason University (GMU) developed an Excel-based simulation of a generic installation with a simplistic loss function driven by historical call data. This model uses loss as a measure of the ability of F&ES assets to reach the location of an emergency. To expand on this model, a second team of GMU student developed a probabilistic loss model of the residential fire scenario during the Spring 2012 semester. This model provides a more realistic simulation of a two story single-family dwelling fire.


Problem Statement

The two previously built models provide a basis for quantifying loss on an installation given a reduction in F&ES assets. However, they are currently disconnected and simplistic. The Navy needs a unified tool that can realistically quantify loss.



The Fall 2012 GMU team is committed to the following objectives:

 To construct a model of a generalized installation that can be made specific given simple data for a particular installation.

 To build an efficient simulation model that will calculate expected losses using probabilistic loss models of various emergencies.

 To include and expand on the residential fire probabilistic loss model.

 To provide an interface to allow for simple addition of new probabilistic loss models for other emergency scenarios.


In summary, the study team intends to create a simulation model of an installation that is based on simple facts, rather than a grid, and is capable of calculating partial loss, rather than assuming loss to be binary. This will involve combining the two previous models and making the original simulation more closely reflect reality. While the Fall 2012 GMU team will not be able to complete a probabilistic loss model for every emergency, they will provide a basis for easy integration of such models in the future.



This study will seek to build a generalized model of an installation. The study team will confine the model to a simulation of incident mitigation based on assumptions about the composition of the installation. There will be no attempt to optimize fire station locations, specify building materials or weather, or model incident prevention.