Customer Categorization for Load Forecasting

Introduction/Background

Northern Virginia Electric Cooperative (NOVEC) is a locally based and locally owned electric power distribution system headquartered in Manassas, Virginia. NOVEC is obliged to provide electrical power for any level of client demand. NOVEC purchases power from producers at prices negotiated daily based on predicted expected load and provides that power to consumers over its own locally maintained infrastructure. In order to minimize the amount of purchases without overcompensating with excessive bulk purchases, NOVEC has developed a forecasting model that estimates future energy purchases. NOVEC leverages forecast model insights to inform the magnitude (kilowatt-hours) of energy purchases from suppliers. Economic metrics included in the model seek to characterize the basic load by capturing economic growth or decline in the Northern Virginia area. The basic load is the energy requirement based solely on the size and typical consumption of customers, and is factored together with weather predictions to produce short-horizon predictions of power needs. To reasonably determine the size and growth rate of customers, local weather data is collected and used to incorporate the effects of weather on historical energy purchases.

This website details the operations research and systems engineering design to develop various categories for NOVEC's customers to assist in the accuracy of the forecasting model.

Sponsor

Northern Virginia Electric Cooperative.

Northern Virginia Electric Cooperative (NOVEC) is a locally based and locally owned electric distribution cooperative headquartered in Manassas, Virginia. NOVEC's long-term energy strategy is to deliver to its customers a locally controlled energy supply that is reliable, environmentally responsible, and competitively priced. It provides electricity to more than 150,000 customers every day.