SYST 473: Decision and
Risk Analysis
Course Overview
Systems
Engineering and Operations Research
Instructor: Dr. Rajesh Ganesan
Office: Science and Tech II, Room 323
Phone: (703) 993-1693 (O)
E-mail: rganesan@gmu.edu
Office
Hours:
Text: Making Hard Decisions, by Clemson and
Reilly Duxbury Publishers
Logical
Decisions Software
TA: Poornima
Balakrishna
TA Office Hours Wed.
Class Hours Tue & Thu,
Description: The intent of this course is to provide a modern perspective on analytical methodologies to support decision making. Decision analysis offers a set of structured procedures that assist decision-makers in structuring decision problems and developing creative decision options, quantifying their uncertainty (this includes combining available statistics with expert judgments, and their own beliefs to arrive at estimates of the probabilities of various outcomes), quantifying their preferences (this includes structuring their value tradeoffs and examining their attitude towards risk), combining their uncertainty and preferences to arrive at “good” decisions. This course provides an introductory treatment of decision analysis. The intended participants are students who want to learn more about decision making under uncertainty and tools that can be used to support it.
Topic Reading
Assignment*
Introduction Read
Chapt. 1-2
Topic Reading
Assignment*
Introduction and Review of Probability Read Chapt.7-8-9
Influence Diagrams Reae Chapt. 3-4
Value Focused Thinking, Value Hierarchies Read Chapts.
6
Value Functions and Weight Elicitation Read Chapt. 12
Sensitivity Analysis Read
Chapt. 5
Utility Functions Read Chapt. 13-14
Bayesian Networks Read Handout
* Homework sets will be assigned on a
weekly basis from appropriate problems in the textbook and on handouts.
Class Rules
1. The book for this course is a basic text for
a broad coverage of Decision Analysis.
It emphasizes problem solution using Excel. The class presentation will often depart from
the book in order to give you multiple perspectives on the covered topics. You should read the applicable sections of
the book prior to class.
2.
Grades will be determined as follows:
Class &
Homework 10%
Midterm 30%
(March 9th)
Projects 30%
Final Exam 30%
Letter
grades will be decided as follows:
97% and above –A+, 94-96%- A, 90-93% -A-,
86-89- B+, 83-85%-B, 80-82%-B-, 76-79%-
C+, 73-75%- C, 70-72%-C-, 66-69%-D+, 63-65%-D,
60-62%-D-, at or below 59%-F
3. In any work you do, always show all the steps
you used to get your answer. If the
answer is wrong, you may still get a great deal of partial credit if I can
follow your logic. This is especially
important in the exam.
4. Some of the lectures will be overhead
presentations. Previous classes have
found it useful to have copies of the overheads during class for their use. I am in the process of developing a web page
for the class. They will be available,
along with other material, there. The
website is http://classweb.gmu.edu/rganesan
5. There will be homework problem sets just
about every class. These will be
collected each week. I will not grade
them in detail, but I will keep track of students that do not hand them
in. I will also use them to gain insight
into the understanding of the students.
Invest the time to do the problem sets.
You will have a hard time with the exam material if you cannot do the
homework.
Each
HW is out of 20 points. Late HW policy: (Late by 1 class: you can earn a max of
10 points out of 20, provided you have all correct answers. If late beyond 1
class then it will not be graded)
6. There will be a project where you will
perform a decision analysis. The project
will include both a written report and an oral presentation. We will have an “in progress review” around
the midterm where the groups will brief the problem statement and proposed
approach. The project presentations will
be at the end of the semester.
7. I am interested in your comments on the class
as the term goes on. Is it too hard or
too easy? Is it too fast or too slow? How much time are you spending on
homework? Anything that will make the
class better and more meaningful will be entertained. Your advice may not be totally accepted, but
your feedback will be much appreciated.
8. Attendance in class is very important. Information will be presented that will not
necessarily be in the book that will show up on the midterm and final.
9. We will make use of the decision analysis
software Logical Decisions for Windows.
This is a student copy that has a nominal time out after a year. I have been told that software vendor will
extend the time out if you ask.
“Logical decisions for Windows -
Version 5.1” This can be bought from
http://www.logicaldecisions.com/ldwprice.htm#Requesting%20More%20Information
for
$65 (Student version). The bookstore does not carry a copy of
this software.
10. Academic Policy:
All academic policies as
given in the Honor System and code will be strictly followed. Visit URL
http://www.gmu.edu/catalog/apolicies/#Anchor12
11.
Exams will only be given at the predetermined dates. Early or late exam taking
will not be allowed, except for very special cases.
12.
Please visit http://classweb.gmu.edu/rganesan
to check for announcements, Hw problems, and
solutions.
13.
Please turn off your cell phones before class and do not use your cell phone
during lecture. Feel free to walk out without distracting the class as and when
needed.
FORMAT
REQUIREMENTS FOR COLLECTED MATERIALS
Identification: all material handed in must have the following
information in the UPPER
RIGHT -HAND CORNER; Name, last 4 digits of G #.
Multiple pages MUST be stapled. Otherwise pages may get lost and
the instructor and TA’s will not be responsible.
BEST
WISHES FOR A GREAT SEMESTER!!